Flaman Agriculture Blog
Jan 5, 2016
Bloomberg is reporting at here that a number of El Nino-Southern Oscillation indicators suggest that the 2015-16 El Nino has peaked and weather models predict it will decline in coming months, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said on its website on Tuesday. Conditions will return to neutral during the second quarter with a chance of La Nina in the second half of 2016, it said. La Nina is a cooling in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, sometimes thought of as El Nino’s opposite. The two are extreme phases of a naturally occurring cycle, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration....
Sep 30, 2015
Environment Canada published their long range forecast maps today. The below maps reveal higher probability of above average temperatures (yellow and red colors) for each of the next 3-month windows (the three maps), with about average precipitation (represented by the white/no-color regions) in the following three maps.
Sep 11, 2015
Reuters— A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday said El Nino conditions would gradually weaken through the Northern Hemisphere spring after peaking in late fall or early winter. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said the likelihood that El Nino conditions would persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter was about 95 per cent, up from a more than 90 per cent chance in last month’s forecast. There has been a growing consensus among forecasters for a strong El Nino, the warming of Pacific sea-surface temperatures. The World Meteorological Organization said last week that this year’s phenomenon could be the...
Aug 28, 2015
With this week's win by Environment Canada, they are inching-up on our tied contest leaders AccuWeather and WeatherFarm. We have now completed 10 rounds of our weather forecasting contest (the first round did not include WeatherFarm, but the next 9 did). Here are the Total points for the last 9 rounds (with Weather Farm) and then all 10 rounds (without Weather Farm). Here are the ranked weekly results - by points that week (forecaster names then week #): Here are our contest rules:
Aug 28, 2015
The resuts from the 10th weather forecasting contest ending August 27th are in - the chart below reveals the current contest results and the formula. Environment Canada had the best 3-day forecast - according to the rules we created without consulting a meterologist. Consider this "for entertainment purposes only." This week the overnight lows for days 2 and 3 were vastly different than anybody forecasted, resulting in some of our lowest scores ever. Currently, WeatherFarm and AccuWeather are tied for most wins at 4 each, Environment Canada follows with 2 wins, and Weather Network has yet to register a win....